Wednesday, November 21, 2012

AD and mAbs: from gamblers point of view

Prepping for an ambitious late-stage program to test its experimental Alzheimer's therapy, TauRx says it has banked a $31.5 million tranche from Malaysia's Genting Management, part of a $112 million commitment for the biotech upstart. TauRx says the rest of the money should arrive before the end of the year.
The cash will buy Genting--a company with widespread investments in Asia--20% of TauRx along with a board seat. And the biotech says that it has now raised an impressive $300 million in the 10 years since the company was founded.
"This investment by GMS affirms Genting's confidence in TauRx and will be directed to the conduct of our pivotal global Phase 3 clinical trials in mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease with LMTX, TauRx's tau aggregation inhibitor," said Professor Claude Wischik, the U.K. scientist and executive chairman and co-founder of TauRx. The drug is the first such "TAI" to reach late-stage clinical trials, and investigators clearly believe that they can do what several Big Pharmas have failed to accomplish with amyloid beta drugs.
Well, it is well known that mAb are not helpful for treatment of AD. Why somebody will spend $112 million for that? I think this is pure gambling. In a casino if you bet on a number you have your bet as a downside and 1/34 chance to get 32 times your bet. With AD upside is let’s say $5 billion. Downside - $112 million so if the drug will be successful the company will win 44.6 times the bet. Not bad! What is the chance to win? Without massaging FDA, EMA and other authorities? I think the chance is not more than statistical deviation…  

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