Eroom's Law works in 2013 too!

What is Erooms Law? More info is here.

 

Drug approvals this year are about quality more than quantity. It looks like the year could end with 34 drugs and biologics approved, down significantly from the record 43 last year. Fewer, yes, but this year will have turned out a new crop of blockbusters whose combined revenues 5 years out are forecast to reach $18.7 billion, besting last year's record of $16.4 billion in projected sales.

 

This will be the result of the industry moving away from me-too drugs and putting its efforts behind drugs for hard-to-treat and specialist diseases, according to a report released today by EP Vantage, the editorial group of EvalutePharma. A good example is Biogen Idec's ($BIIB) multiple sclerosis drug Tecfidera. The projected blockbuster has already blasted past analysts' forecasts in each of three quarters this year and is expected to reach sales of $2.9 billion in 2018, EP Vantage says.
 

 

The FDA has approved 27 drugs through Nov. 11. Those 27 alone are projected to have combined sales of $13.9 billion. The $18.7 billion total assumes the 7 still awaiting approval this year get FDA support. The setback earlier this year for Novo Nordisk's ($NVO) diabetes drug Tresiba is a good reminder that expected approvals don't always materialize. The number also assumes approval of Gilead Sciences' ($GILD) sofosbuvir, the highly anticipated drug which would be part of an interferon-free, all-oral hep C regimen. Based on analysts' 5-year sales projections, it would be the most valuable drug approved in 2013, with sales expected to hit nearly $3 billion in 2018, edging out Tecfidera. That means sofosbuvir would make up 16% of the total for the class of 2013.