Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Cytotoxic Therapies Market to 2017. Decline. Are you sure?

From the advertisement:
Cytotoxic Therapies Market to 2017
Cytotoxic Therapies Market is Set to Experience Marginal Decline in the Forecast Period

The cytotoxic therapies market accounted for $6.5 billion in revenue in 2002 from its eight major indications, which include breast cancer, cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, non-small cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer and prostate cancer. From 2002, the market grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8%, to $10.1 billion in 2010, and it is estimated to decline marginally at (0.1%) during the forecast period to produce revenues of $10.1 billion in 2017.

The average annual cost of therapy for cytotoxic therapies is estimated to decrease moderately over the forecast period, and is expected to reach an approximate value of $7,667 by 2017. Overall, the cytotoxic therapies market value will decrease moderately between 2010 and 2017.

Increasing Acceptance of Combinations of Cytotoxic Medicines with Monoclonal Antibodies will counter the Use of Generics

The therapeutic capabilities of biologics in controlling and treating oncology complications have led to their widespread use and popularity amongst patients and prescribers alike. This has convinced pharmaceutical manufacturers to commence label extensions of their present portfolio of biologics for multiple oncology complications, even in combination with cytotoxic medicines. This will act as a support to the continued use of cytotoxic drugs, even though safety issues exist.

In addition, industry trends suggest that pharmaceutical companies are more interested in researching and developing novel targeted therapies and biologics rather than discovering novel cytotoxic drugs, as these continue to have major safety hurdles. Safety is an important measure, not only during approval but also when determining reimbursement lists. Reimbursements for almost all therapeutic areas are under severe pressure. Taken together, the industry and environmental trends suggest that the cytotoxic medicines market is likely to see a slow increase in market value within the next few years.
Well, let’s check this forecast in 2017. Biologics and targeted treatments promise a lot and they are very often being screwed up. My forecast that until 2020 we will witness very nice Black Swan in cytotoxics. Future will show who is right…

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