Mabs will fail again?

I have written a lot of times that, by the experience, targeted medicines developed in accordance to the modern paradigm are very ineffective. I will not go into details of this fact again and again (just see here and here). A new possible failure is close: Institutional investors doubt that treatments for Alzheimer's disease being developed by Pfizer Inc and Eli Lilly will achieve the main goals of their ongoing late-stage trials.

This time we are talking about the following mAbs: solanesumab and bapineuzumab:

Results from the survey of 146 investors were released late on Tuesday by Mark Schoenebaum, a pharmaceutical analyst for the investment research services group. Wall Street is eagerly awaiting results of the trials and expects huge potential sales if either of the medicines proves able to arrest the progression of the memory-robbing disease.

The survey responders, on average, gave solanezumab only a 14 percent chance of meeting all the primary goals of its two Phase III studies, compared with an average 21 percent probability for the two big trials of bapineuzumab, Schoenebaum said.

Likewise, responders cite an average 15 percent probability of the Lilly's drug winning approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration sometime in the next two years, compared with 29 percent odds for bapineuzumab.

I do not know do the investors really understand the reason of failure or they just do not believe in the companies developing these medicines. I think that more people will come to conclusion very soon that mAbs are not so sexy as Big Pharma is painting.

Then I am waiting for the failure with this project.