I have found a very interesting information regarding forecast of epidemiology of Diabetes in the US. The numbers are tremendous. Very impressive. In several states we will have as many as 20% of the population with Diabetes up to 2025. On the site there is also expectation how much Diabetes care will cost to the society. Well, numbers are also huge. Two important things strike me:
Trends. I do accept that trends in general can be useful in order to understand the tendency. For sure! However it is stupid to accept that if we have two points and just draw the line on the plot through these points so in that way we will be able to somehow accurately predict the future situation... It is too simple and too misleading but it is usual way how the forecasts of different kinds are being made. Let's exaggerate this approach: if 2005 in one of the states the amount of diabetes patients was 15% and 2010 it becomes 15+5% so according to this logic year 2090 every person in the state will suffer from diabetes. It is crazy. It is better do not have any numbers at all instead of using the a priori irrelevant ones.
2. Video. Novo Nordisk made a movie where it presents the US diabetes market. And guess who is the biggest player and beneficiary? Of course – Novo Nordisk! It makes huge profits with every 1% increase of the diabetes population. Do you think that Novo Nordisk as well as other players are interested to cure the Diabetes or decrease the amount of people suffering from Diabetes? Something is telling me that they are not. Do we understand now why the efficiency of their R&D programs is spectacularly decreasing?
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