Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Predictive... Innovations?

Predictive innovation? Sounds harsh. What about “meaningful innovation”?

Nevertheless the author has a lot of meaningful sentences:

“Drug discovery and development is founded on the premise that it is possible to predict whether a compound will have clinical efficacy in a disease based on in vitro experiments in cells and in vivo experiments in animals. Unfortunately, scientists have shown for years that, while these models have some value, they are not foolproof. It has been said that cancer has been cured many times in mice. The problem is that results in rodents don’t often translate to results in humans. Human biology and disease pathology are quite complex and cannot be easily mimicked in artificial laboratory settings.”

Another sentence from the article:

In a recent interview with Nature, Anders Ekblom, head of Science and Technology Integration at AstraZeneca addressed this process: “The billion-dollar question is ‘how early can I know that the approach I’m taking will definitely turn into a drug that delivers exactly what I would like to see?’ A lot of the cost in today’s drug development is the cost of failures. We are all trying to focus our energy on how we can get different technologies to better predict outcomes.”

Well, really, good question – how early can I know? How early can I know who wins the next president election in US? How early can I know the price of gold and oil next week? The message is simple – to invest riskless and harvest tremendous profit. This is very typical approach for venture capitalists. They readily bet on every idea trying to get extremely high profits but 99% fail. It is like lottery and their skills are pretty worthless. What do you need to win in a lottery? To be in right place in right time when a winning lottery ticket is selling. Basically – nothing more.  

And another sentence:

A paper by scientists at Eli Lilly goes into great detail on this topic with respect to target selection. They believe that “validated targets for drug discovery are now materializing rapidly” and the attractiveness of many new targets is enhanced by the availability of biomarkers and surrogate endpoints which enable researchers to prove very early in clinical trials whether the hypothesis behind the compound’s activity actually is relevant in humans. This is an excellent way to proceed and I believe that all biopharmaceutical companies are striving for this.

Have you seen innovation somewhere in the last quote? “Target selection” or “target validation”? Well, let them bet on these innovations, jack-pot will be increased!

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